EXPERIENCE

Independent Economic Research and Consultant, 2006-present. · · · · Research and publications on children’s well-being, jobs of last resort, alternative and improved measures of the unemployment rate.

Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Visiting Scholar, National Poverty Center, 2003-2006. · · Researched and published papers critical of the Welfare Reform Act of 1996. Published analyses of subsidized employment programs. Researched the history of equal opportunity in the United States.

International Law Institute, Washington DC, Adjunct Professor, 2003. · · · Lectured on International Trade, Finance & Growth.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington DC, 1969 – 2002.

Senior Economist, Division of International Finance 1984 – 2002. · In charge of forecasting, monitoring and analyzing direct investment and the activities of multinational firms for the Division and the Board of Governors.

· Served as the Board’s representative to various U.S. Interagency Committees on direct investment statistics. · Served as the Board’s representative on the multi-year OECD working group on The Globalization of Capital Markets and the Tax Treatment of Income and Capital (1994-96). · Conducted and published research on macro-econometric modelling; direct investment data and its adequacy; the impact on investment functions of internal funds and measurement error in the capital stock; interactions between direct foreign and domestic fixed investment; the impact on direct investment of exchange rates, political risk, and NAFTA; topics on portfolio analysis including the characterization of optimal asset holdings and the impact of risk on efficient capital markets; welfare reform and its effects on children’s well-being. · Delivered talks on research and other work at conferences, university seminars, and other meetings in the United States and abroad.

Chief, Trade and Financial Studies, Division of International Finance 1981-84; Chief, Quantitative Studies, Division of International Finance 1973-81.

· Directed the International Division’s two research sections for a combined period of eleven years; helped design and organize Quantitative Studies from its inception. In charge of budget, recruitment, and planning for a section of 5 to 6 economists and an equal number of support personnel. · Directed the Division’s Multi-Country Model project (MCM) from its inception to its completion (1973-81) – a project created to model the international influences on the U.S. economy under a regime of flexible exchange rates. The unique product, a system of 6 linked econometric models of the United States and its major trading and financial partners, featured, among other innovations, four endogenous bilateral exchange rates. The MCM was the first in the line of similar systems that were used for many years (and may be used today) for simulation and forecasting purposes at the Federal Reserve. · Authored and co-authored numerous published articles on the MCM, including the book The U.S. Economy in an Interdependent World (1984). · Made presentations on the MCM and other subjects to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, various Central Banks around the world, universities, and professional conferences. · Authored, during this period, publications on the subjects of the impact of risk and uncertainty on the theory of fixed investment and the internationalization of the business firm; the interaction between trade and direct investment; and the impact of governmental controls on foreign investment. · Chaired the International Division’s Visiting Scholars Committee (1975-84) and the Federal Reserve’s Statistical Package Development Committee (1976-80). · Testified before U.S. Senate Subcommittees and submitted statements on the collection of data on multinational firms and on the proposed Int’l Investment Survey Act (1975-76).

Economist, Special Studies, Div. of International Finance 1972-73; Economist, Special Studies and Capital Markets, Div. Research & Statistics 1969-72. · Carried on research and publication in the areas of multinational investment, capital mobility, portfolio theory, and corporate bond yields.

University of Maryland, Special Member of Graduate Faculty, 1998-2000. · Co-directed a Ph.D. dissertation that tested and extended my earlier work on political and economic determinants of direct investment flows to developing countries.

University of Pennsylvania, Adjunct Professor of Economics, Wharton School, 1981. · Taught graduate course on International Trade and Finance.

U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Office of Foreign Direct Investments, Consultant, 1969-74. · Carried out and advised on research and data gathering for the agency charged with administering controls on U.S. direct investment abroad.

The Brookings Institution, Washington DC, Research Associate, 1966-69. · Completed Ph.D. dissertation on the fixed investment of U.S. foreign affiliates using U.S. Commerce Department data. Carried out further research on multinational investment and portfolio analysis.

U.S. Department of State, Agency for International Development, Consultant, 1968. · Researched and wrote paper U.S. Direct Investment in Latin America: Some Economic and Political Determinants.

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Various years, Consultant, 1963-90. · Initially carried out the gathering and processing of micro data on the operations of U.S. foreign subsidiaries for use in my Ph.D. dissertation. · Subsequently advised the Bureau on revisions to their census and survey forms, and on promoting interactions with academic researchers.

Yale University, Cowles Foundation, Research Associate, 1960. · Completed study Corporate Dividend Payout Ratios: Their Significance and Determination (Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper #94).

EDUCATION

Yale University, Ph.D. in Economics, 1967

Dissertation: Fixed Investment of Foreign Manufacturing Affiliates of U.S. Firms: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence

Yale Law School, LL.B., 1966

Cambridge University, M.A. 1967, B.A. 1962

Yale University, B.A., summa cum laude, 1960

HONORS

Fellow, World Academy of Art and Science, 2002-2012

Member, Board of Trustees, 2005- 2012; Treasurer, 2009-2012

Anbar Citation of Excellence for article in Journal of Finance, 1998

Special Achievement Award, Federal Reserve Board, 1979

Sperry and Hutchinson Scholar, Yale Law School, 1963-66

National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow, 1962-63

Clark Fellowship, Yale Graduate School, 1962-63

Marshall Scholar, Cambridge University, 1960-62

Searle Prize, Pembroke College, Cambridge University, 1961

B.A., summa cum laude, with Highest Distinction in Economics, Yale University, 1960

Warren Memorial Prize for Scholarship, Yale University (highest 4-year B.A. average, Class of 1960)

Dickerman Prize, Yale University (best senior honors essay in economics), 1960

Phi Beta Kappa, 1958

N.Y. Yale Club Prize for Scholarship, 1957

Exchange student to Lycée de Fontainebleau, France, 1955-56

WORK IN PROGRESS

Programs and Costs for Assuring Child Well-Being and Equal Opportunity (ongoing).

A History of Equal Opportunity in the United States (ongoing). Draft available.

See publications, below, for completed work.

PUBLICATIONS (Click on underlined title to read/download the Pdf)

Book

The U.S. Economy in an Interdependent World: A Multi-country Model, Washington, DC: Federal Reserve Board, 1984 (with R. Berner, P. Clark, E. Hernandez-Cata, H. Howe, and S. Kwack). (Reviewed in Journal of Economic Literature, 1985; Journal of Int’l Economics, 1985; Journal of Policy Modeling, 1984; Journal of Int’l Money and Finance, 1986; Economic Journal, 1986)

Journal Articles and Book Chapters

“Children’s Well-Being, Adult Poverty, and Jobs of Last Resort,” The Journal of Children and Poverty, 18, 1, 55-80 (2012), with Anthony J. Mallon.

“Making the 1996 Welfare Reform Work: The Promise of a Job,” Journal of Poverty: 15: 2, 113-140 (2011), with Anthony J. Mallon. (Also available as #2010-3 in the Working Paper series of the National Poverty Center, Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan.)

“Promise of a Job: Reducing Poverty and Enhancing Children’s Future Opportunity,” (with Anthony J. Mallon), Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity, April 19, 2010, Available at http://www.spotlightonpoverty.org/ExclusiveCommentary.aspx?id=6a9b8607-6aac-41d5-a495-66fce479f34f.

“Welfare Reform and the Well-Being of America’s Children,” published simultaneously in Challenge, January 2002, and Indicators: The Journal of Social Health, Winter 2001-2002.

“Comment on ‘Home Country Effects of Foreign Direct Investment’” in M. Blomstrom and L. Goldberg (eds.), Topics in Empirical Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert Lipsey, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2001.

"Politics, Economics, and Investment: Explaining Plant and Equipment Spending by U.S. Direct Investors in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, June 2000.

"On the Inverse of the Covariance Matrix in Portfolio Analysis," The Journal of Finance, October, 1998.

"Comment" on "Supplementing the Cross-Border Trade Accounts: Transactions Between Americans and Foreigners," (by R.E. Baldwin and F. Kimura), in Robert E. Baldwin, Robert E. Lipsey, and R. David Richardson, eds., Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998.

"Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: A Note," Journal of Policy Modeling, June 1998.

"U.S. Direct Investment to Mexico: Politics, Economics, and NAFTA," Contemporary Economic Policy, April 1998.

"Comment" on "On the Impact of a Cut in the US Budget Deficit on the World Economy: A Simulation with the EPA World Model," in L. Klein and F. Lo, eds., Modelling Global Change, Tokyo, New York: United Nations University Press, 1995.

"Measurement Error in the Capital Stock and Its Effect on the Investment Function," Applied Economics, 26, January 1994.

"Internal Funds and the Investment Function," Southern Economic Journal, January 1994.

"Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, February 1992 (with R.E. Lipsey).

"The Adequacy of Direct Investment Data," in P. Hooper and J. David Richardson, eds., International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991 (with Lois Stekler).

"Developments and Prospects in Macroeconometric Modeling: A Comment," The Eastern Economic Journal, October-December 1989.

"The Structure and Properties of the Multi-Country Model," in B. Hickman, ed., Global International Econometric Models, Amsterdam and New York: North Holland, 1983 (with S. Kwack, R. Berner, P. Clark, E. Hernandez-Cata, H. Howe).

"Assessing International Interdependence with a Multi-Country Model," The Journal of Econometrics, (Supplement), January 1981 (with H. Howe, E. Hernandez-Cata, R. Berner, P. Clark, and S. Kwack).

"Modeling Bilateral Exchange Rates in a Multi-Country Model," in Proceedings of the Fourth Pacific Basin Central Bank Conference on Econometric Modeling, Tokyo: The Bank of Japan, 1980 (with R. Berner, P. Clark, E. Hernandez-Cata, P. Hooper, S. Kwack, and R. Tryon).

"Monetary Policy Under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes," in Managed Exchange-Rate Flexibility: The Recent Experience, Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1979 (with E. Hernandez-Cata, H. Howe, S. Kwack, R. Berner, and P. Clark).

"Comment" on "The Distributional Consequences of Direct Foreign Investment," (R.H. Frank and R.T. Freeman), Wm. Dewald, ed., The Impact of International Trade and Investment on Employment, Washington: U.S. Gov't Printing Office, 1978.

"Comment" on "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Adjustment on International Investment," in Peter B. Clark, D.E. Logue and R.J. Sweeney, eds., The Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment, Washington: U.S. Gov't Printing Office, 1977.

"The Payments Impact of Foreign Investment Controls: Comment," The Journal of Finance, December 1976.

"The Multinational Firm and the Determinants of Investment," in J. Dunning, ed., The Multinational Firm and Economic Analysis, London: Allen & Unwin, 1974.

"On the Impact of Uncertainty on the Value and Investment of the Neoclassical Firm," American Economic Review, June 1974.

"The Trade Effects of Direct Investment," The Journal of Finance, May 1974, (with Michael Adler); reprinted in P.J. Buckley, ed., International Investment, (Int’l Library of Critical Writings in Economics), London: Aldershot, 1990.

"On Tobin's Multiperiod Portfolio Theorem," Review of Economic Studies, Oct. 1972.

"Capital Mobility and the International Firm," in Fritz Machlup et al., editors, The International Mobility and Movement of Capital, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1972.

"Two Problems in Portfolio Analysis: Conditional and Multiplicative Random Variables," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, December 1971.

“Fixed Investment Expenditures of Foreign Manufacturing Affiliates of U.S. Firms: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Yale Economic Essays, Spring 1969.

Other Publications

"A Retreat on Children's Well-Being," Opinion/Essays Section, The Christian Science Monitor, Friday, Aug. 22, 1997, p. 18.

"U.S. International Transactions in 1996," Federal Reserve Bulletin, May 1997.

Book Review of Economics, Econometrics and the LINK, in International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 1996, pp. 559-566.

“On Risk, Rational Expectations, and Efficient Asset Markets,” (with Dara Akbarian), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper #478, 1994.

"U.S. International Transactions in 1989," Federal Reserve Bulletin, May 1990.

"Statement on International Investment Survey Act of 1975," in Hearings before the Subcommittee on Foreign Commerce and Tourism of the Committee on Commerce, U.S. Senate, 94th Congress, 2nd Session, Feb. 23 and 27, 1976.

"Statement on International Investment Survey Act of 1975," in Hearings before the Subcommittee on Foreign Commerce and Tourism of the Committee on Commerce, U.S. Senate, 94th Congress, 2nd Session, Feb. 23 and 27, 1976.

"Obtaining the Yield on a Standard Bond from a Sample of Bonds with Heterogeneous Characteristics," Staff Economic Study #77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1973 (with J. Kichline and P.M. Laub). Results published as "Yields on Newly Issued Corporate Bonds," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Sept. 1972.

“U.S. Direct Investment in Latin American: Some Economic and Political Determinants”, U.S. Agency for International Development Research Paper, June 1969.

“Corporate Dividend Payout Ratios and Target Ratios: Their Significance and Determination,” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper #94, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University, October 1960.

Selected Unpublished and Partially Published Studies and Memoranda

To be filled in later